Over the past couple of years, the Bills consistently save Allen's legs and run him more in big spots against top teams, unleashing him for designed runs and scrambles.
This is one of my favorite go-to prop bets. These two teams played in December and Buffalo was -7 with Tua Tagovailoa playing. Save for a terrible second half from Josh Allen in Week 1 against a defense that has consistently given him fits, Buffalo has been as elite as advertised. The Dolphins will be the most public dog of the entire weekend, but the Buffalo defense is the differentiator and they’ll get more stops to win this game late. They are second in EPA per play allowed, second in EPA per dropback and top 10 in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
The Bills have faced Sam Howell, Jimmy Garoppolo and Zach Wilson, but the healthy version of this Buffalo defense has quietly posted elite numbers. It is the talk of the league right now, but the Bills defense might be an underrated part of the story. Miami’s offense has been a supernova through three weeks, lapping the entire league in efficiency and production. The Bills caught a break from the schedule makers and won’t have to go to Miami in September again after the offense was gassed at the end of last year’s contest. The unquestioned game of the weekend in the NFL as the 3-0 Dolphins face the should-be 3-0 Bills in a battle for AFC East supremacy.
